International Federation of Operational Research Societies – XV^th Triennial Conference –
Beijing, China, August 16 – 20, 1999

Preliminary Conference Schedule
Choice Engineering Cluster

Session #1
Shaping Models of Choice Behavior

Chairperson
Jan-Peter Lechner, Univ. der Bundeswehr Hamburg,
ifors99@jpl.ac

Bounded Rationality – How Good are Fast and Frugal Heuristics

Abstract
Optimizing models portray minds as equipped with unlimited time, knowledge, and computational might: so-called rational minds must look up and integrate all available information. I present a family of fast and frugal heuristics that violate the tenets of classical rationality, but are psychologically grounded. Are such heuristics doomed to exhibit irrationality?

Author / Speaker
Gerd Gigerenzer

Affiliation
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Address
Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany  +49 (30) 82406 460  +49 (30) 82406 394  gigerenzer@mpib-berlin.mpg.de   www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de

A Choice Model under Ambiguous Risk

Abstract
We propose a generalized expected utility model for decision making under ambiguous risk that is often encountered in practice. Ambiguity about probability is treated as a second order uncertainty modeled by a distribution. Then a decomposition approach is used to separate the effects of risk and ambiguity on choice evaluation.

Author / Speaker
James S. Dyer

Affiliation
Department of Management Science and Information Systems, The Graduate School of Business, University of Texas at Austin
Address
Austin, TX 78712, USA  j.dyer@utxvm.cc.utexas.edu

2^nd Author
Jianmin Jia

Affiliation
Department of Marketing, Faculty of Business Administration, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Address
Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong  jia@baf.msmail.cuhk.edu.hk

Operational Similarity for Social-Systems Analysts and Models of Choosing

Abstract
One of the most crucial shortcomings social system analysis suffers from so far is addressed: insensitivity towards contextual discipline. By re-considering basic terms and concepts fundamental to any decision-making approach, the presentation opens the path toward Context-matching Theory of Choosing. Examples from practice serve to illustrate the conceptual statements.

Author / Speaker
Russell F. Rhyne

Affiliation
Pattern and Systems International
Address
69 Lasen Drive, Santa Barbara, CA 93111, USA  +1 (805) 967 0317  megumir@npwt.net 

Evolving Targets: Using Simulation Tools to Reframe Probabilistic Decision Impact

Abstract
Objectives often are tightly linked to options and circumstances anticipated for the time of implementing. Though not desired with respect to logic and rationality, preparing decisions might change objectives and force new problem formulation. A case study is presented, employing simulation tools to guide and integrate re-specification of targets.

Author / Speaker
Jan-Peter Lechner

Affiliation
Universitat der Bundeswehr Hamburg
Address
22039 Hamburg, Germany  +49 (40) 6541-2371  Jan-Peter.Lechner@unibw-hamburg.de

Session #2
Applications and Theory of Preference Modelling

Chairperson
Jonathan Barzilai, Dalhousie University,
Jonathan.Barzilai@dal.ca

AHP Benefit/Cost Analysis at B.C. Hydro

Abstract
The company used absolute AHP to determine priorities, Benefit/$ ratios and AHP benefit scores in an LP format. They also used AHP relative measurement to determine projects at the margin. Based on these figures, they made a number of analyses to improve their allocations.

Author / Speaker
Daren S. Sanders

Affiliation
BC Hydro
Address
c/o William C. Wedley, Simon Fraser University wedley@sfu.ca

2nd Author
Paul A. Spitzer

Affiliation
Nu-Westech Engineering Ltd.
Address
c/o William C. Wedley, Simon Fraser University wedley@sfu.ca

3rd Author
William C. Wedley

Affiliation
Simon Fraser University
Address
wedley@sfu.ca

Multiple Criteria Studies of Waste Management

Abstract
As society moves into the 21st century, one of the most important questions is how to deal with its waste. Refuse disposal, industrial waste, and nuclear energy are three different levels of important waste management problems. This paper reviews three multiple criteria cases involving different countries and different methods.

Author / Speaker
David L. Olson

Affiliation
Texas A&M University
Address
dolson@acs.tamu.edu

Measurement and PFM

Abstract
Preference Function Modelling (PFM) is a new methodology for measurement of preferences on interval scales. PFM represents a new easy-to-use but powerful decision paradigm. This talk will outline the theory underlying the methodology.

Author / Speaker
Jonathan Barzilai

Affiliation
Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Dalhousie University
Address
740 Saint-Maurice, Suite 410, Montreal, Quebec H3C 1L5, Canada, +1 (514) 954-3665, +1 (514) 954-9739, Jonathan.Barzilai@dal.ca  www.ScientificDecisions.com

Session #3

An Industry in the Making: Automated Advisory Services and Systems – Presentation and Discussion Panel

Chairperson
Jan-Peter Lechner, Univ. der Bundeswehr Hamburg
ifors99@jpl.ac

Automated Advisory Services and Systems

Abstract
The concept and components of Automated Advisory Services (AAS) are described in this paper. Arlingsoft's AAS uses unique DSS systems and multidisciplinary approaches to knowledge management and decision support. It reduces choice costs by automating decision procedures, where prior captured and suitably characterized knowledge is utilized for future decisions.

Author / Speaker
Edward S. Robins

Affiliation
Arlington Software Corporation
Address
740 Saint-Maurice, Suite 410, Montreal, Quebec H3C 1L5, Canada, +1 (514) 954-3665, +1 (514) 954-9739, erobins@arlingsoft.com  www.arlingsoft.com

Panel – Members

 

Panelist
Dangerfield, Brian

Affiliation
Centre for OR & Applied Statistics, University of Salford
Address
Salford M5 4WT, United Kingdom  +44-161-295 5315   + 44-161-295 5556  B.C.Dangerfield@business.salford.ac.uk

 

Panelist
Russell F. Rhyne

Affiliation
Pattern and Systems International
Address
69 Lasen Drive, Santa Barbara, CA 93111, USA  +1 (805) 967 0317  megumir@npwt.net 

 

Panelist
Edward S. Robins

Affiliation
Arlington Software Corporation
Address
740 Saint-Maurice, Suite 410, Montreal, Quebec H3C 1L5, Canada, +1 (514) 954-3665, +1 (514) 954-9739, erobins@arlingsoft.com  www.arlingsoft.com